The Worst Divisional Favorite. By Far.

People need to be real about this football team. There is no way they are taking down their division. It may even be a reach to say they’ll make the playoffs.

Right now the pervasive thought across NFL fandom is that the Detroit Lions might be THE least safe divisional favorite in the league. Of course excluding the guaranteed calamity of the AFC South. It’s a little absurd how much caution there is with the Lions considering they had over a dozen injuries on defense last year. Despite that they went 15-2 and went to the divisional round of the playoffs. This year missing pieces will return, the defensive line should be able to generate pressure, and Detroit just brought in one of the best coverage corners in the league with the signing of DJ Reed. On offense, Detroit nearly has unrivaled firepower with a top 3-5 unit in the league. Yes, Detroit lost their top notch playcaller, but with the troops they have at their disposal the franchise shouldn’t miss a beat. The 49ers on the other hand, I’d be wary. They are by far the worst divisional favorite across the NFL, yet people don’t act like it. Their first glaring issue comes with playmakers on their offense and the risk the unit is faced with.

CMC has been the most uber talented running back in the league when healthy and at the top of his game. The issue with that is he’s had a tumultuous period with injury once again. Stem cell and plasma treatments for Achilles Tendinitis and a significant PCL injury. Not what you want to hear as a football fan. The guy went to Germany for treatment that speeds up the recovery, but signs point to the star having more and more recurring injuries like he had in Carolina. If McCaffrey was to miss any time in 2025 the 49ers would undoubtedly miss the playoffs. Behind him is Isaac Guerendo who has proven absolutely nothing. Then when moving from RB to WR in this offense, it becomes a train wreck. Aiyuk is leading the way after a putrid effort in 2024 that was cut short by a horrific injury. Then there is Jauan Jennings who is in a bitter spat with San Francisco’s front office over his contract. And honestly it’s quite justified considering Jennings has been unbelievably clutch in the game’s brightest moments. He also just came off of a career year as the only stable option at receiver for the team. The last playmaker to round out the unit is Ricky Pearsall. Some people with sports media accounts across various platforms are suggesting Pearsall can fill the same role as Jennings in the offense, which is completely unfounded. A guy who was limited in his opportunity and put up 400 yards with 283 of those coming against bottom of the barrel defenses (Lions, Cardinals, Bucs), cannot replicate a 1,000 yard season with ZERO help. That is essentially what Jennings just had. Deebo was a joke, Aiyuk was down for the whole season, and Jennings was the man to answer the call and keep the Niners in close games. I refrained from mentioning Kittle because he’s legit, but isn’t enough to thrust the Niners into the playoffs unless he puts up another 1,300 yard season. There is far too much volatility across the board for this team and its playmakers, which their divisional foes don’t have.

On top of having the issues in terms of lacking firepower with their playmakers, there are two other main concerns. Brock Purdy operating with far less than he’s had in prior years as well as Trent Williams being on retirement’s doorstep. He’s still a damn good tackle, it's just not the most promising prospect to play in just 10 games prior to your age 37 season. Looking beyond the 49ers there are two teams on the rise in the NFC West. Both of which have incredibly stout defenses. The Seahawks just added Nick Emmanwori to their already loaded secondary. An athletic freak who can lay the lumber and cover all over the field. You slot him into a defense that is deep at all three levels and the 49ers are going to have two tough games right there. Then you move to the Los Angeles Rams whose defense rose far above expectation due to Jared Verse being a top tier edge presence. He has veterans scared already. When Terron Armstead retired, he expressed that he was happy he never had to line up across from Verse again. A five time Pro Bowl offensive lineman suggesting a rookie defensive lineman factored into his retirement. Yeah, Verse will be a hall of famer. This is just the defensive side of the ball for these two ascending NFC West teams. On offense both teams made significant, positive investments into their cores. On paper they both have significantly better rosters than the Niners. It’s safe to say Shanahan’s window has officially been closed. A window reminiscent of the 90’s Bills. Reaching the pinnacle of the game, but never bringing home the hardware. We haven’t even stated the Niners defensive losses.

The 49ers just lost six players who had a major role in the 49ers defense at one point. Their defensive line loses Javon Hargrave, Leonard Floyd, and Maliek Collins. Collins has been an ascending force on the interior of the defensive line with the last two years of his career being his best. Floyd and Hargrave are savvy vets that always get the job done. Both generate consistent pressure on the quarterback and Hargrave is a good chess piece to stifle the run game. Beyond their line the 49ers are now without their heartbeat and vocal leader, Dre Greenlaw. Injury sidelined him most of last season, but upon return he was still the same old elite offball linebacker he has been throughout his career. The last and most formidable blow to the Niners defense is the secondary. Charvarius Ward and Talanoa Hufanga left the team this offseason. Ward was easily their best corner, while Hufanga was flying all around the football field making ridiculously acrobatic plays. Hufanga could play both in the box or deep in coverage. He was steadily improving his game until injury robbed him of a season yet again. Over the last two seasons Hufanga has missed 17 games. An entire season. That’s what factored into the organization’s decision to let him go. This has been a problem for the Niners since the 2010s. Constant injuries that crush the franchise. A team with no established receiving options yet, a looming grim reaper of injury, and that is losing six defensive starters. Expected to win their division. I don’t think so.